“The New Balance in Asia” in “Three and A Half Powers”
Asia is a word with many meanings and associations, a huge region whose importance and interest no one would deny. This book concentrates on the international politics of that part of Asia east of the Persian Gulf (excluding the Middle East, in other words), and on the interaction of the major powers—the United States, the Soviet Union, the People’s Republic of China, and to a lesser extent Japan—in particular. My aim has been to write a book that would say something significant and interesting about Asia to the general reader, the student (whether in connection with a formal academic program or not), and if possible even the specialist in some aspect of contemporary Asian affairs.
Some people may wonder why, in view of Asia’s proverbial complexity, a single person should have ventured to deal with its international politics as a whole in a single volume. To this there are several answers. One is that to the best of my knowledge there is no satisfactory overall treatment of this important subject in any language, whether by an individual or by a team, and a need therefore obviously exists. Secondly, it is a subject that I have been studying and teaching from various points of view—mainly that of a China specialist—since 1950. In the process I have accumulated substantial, although not necessarily unique, files that have proved indispensable in the writing of this book. To a large extent the files consist of newspaper clippings, and it is my firm belief that if used with care and if drawn from the best sources—my favorites are easily The New York Times, The Washington Post, and The Christian Science Monitor—these are enormously valuable although not sufficient by themselves. Some of the other published sources that I have found helpful are listed at the end of the book. In addition to these; I have learned a great deal over the years from academic colleagues and American officials—with whom contact is made a little, although not dramatically, easier by having a base in Washington—and from fairly extensive travel in Asia, especially in recent years. I have unfortunately not yet visited South Asia or the mainland of China; in the latter case, my request for a visa in 1973 was refused, on the ground that all facilities for tourists were already booked. But much of value can be learned about such areas without actually visiting them. I have nevertheless learned a great deal from visiting most of the other countries of the Far East and Southeast Asia and talking with local officials, journalists, students, scholars, and political figures, as well as foreign (including American) diplomats.
My approach to the subject has been to try to present it in its own terms, from the perspective of political history and political analysis rather than from that of one of the newer theories cum-methodologies currently fashionable in political science and the study of international relations. An approach that is not quantitative can still make statements that are significant and reasonably precise and have a high probability of being correct. Since the subject is one that arouses my intellectual interest but not to any great extent my political emotions, I believe I have managed to keep the latter out of the book to a reasonable degree. As for the area where this question naturally arises, that of American policy toward Asia, I am selectively critical rather than totally hostile or uncritically laudatory; above all, I have tried to understand and convey the reasons for American decisions and behavior. I have introduced some material on the domestic politics of the countries involved, including the United States, but always with the larger aim of analyzing international politics in mind.
Part I consists of relatively short chapters covering from the Second World War down to approximately 1969 and therefore dealing with an era in which the American role and American influence were the outstanding single feature of Asian international politics. Part II contains generally longer chapters treating in greater detail the period since about 1969; of the various important trends or situations that began at that time, the most significant seems to me to be strategic parity between the United States and the Soviet Union, a state of affairs that has profoundly influenced the whole of international politics. The others are the Sino-Soviet military confrontation, the American military disengagement from Asia, and the Sino-American détente.
I should like to express my appreciation to the Joint Committee on Contemporary China of the American Council of Learned Societies and the Social Science Research Council for a grant that made possible a trip to the Far East and Southeast Asia that was of great value in the preparation of this book in May-July 1973, and to Nancy Hallsted for typing the manuscript. The Joint Committee is of course not responsible for any of the opinions or conclusions expressed.
HAROLD C. HINTON
WASHINGTON, D.C.
SEPTEMBER 1974
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